It easy to find many who don't want to see or understand the coming collapse. Its also easy to find the few that do. The financial structure of our world has collapsed. Most with half a brain and see it. Talks of nationalizing Citi and Bank of America should be a dead giveaway. Half of America banks with BofA. HALF. They are insolvent and need help. That means half of all of America is in danger of having its bank be insolvent. HALF. Alarms going off anyone?
Probably not.
Sunday, February 22, 2009
Monday, February 16, 2009
Why we don't get it.
When everybody was caught up in the "change" Obama promised it seems they glossed over a couple of issues. I read on a blog once that "elections have consequences". They certainly do.
If you voted for Obama you endorsed War and the killing of innocents.
Obama has promised an expansion of the wars in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Many women children and other innocents have been killed and disfigured and maimed in these conflicts and you endorsed an expansion of this. Iraq has seen 1.3 million innocents killed. Are we going to try to match that in Afghanistan? Make no mistake Obama voters you endorsed the killing of innocents. You could have chosen Ron Paul or a multitude of other third party candidates that would end the wars and bring the troops home.
If you voted for Obama you endorsed torture and kidnappging.
Obama has promised to continue rendition and torture. He will grab suspected terrorists, torture and detain them. There will be no trial, no evidence. Just a bunch of CIA, NSA and FBI people saying...maybe he is a terrorist, lets torture him. Obama has endorsed this and so did you. You Obama voter are responsible.
I find these two things reprehensible so could not vote for a democrat or republican. I want real change. I want the CIA and wars ended. Its time to step up to the plate and understand on a personal level what you voted for. You are complicit in the murder of innocent people. This war is a lie, the evidence is in front of your face yet to vote for an EXPANSION of it? Really? Grow up and face you personal responsibility for enabling the people in power to create and maintain the empire through war and oppression.
If you voted for Obama you endorsed War and the killing of innocents.
Obama has promised an expansion of the wars in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Many women children and other innocents have been killed and disfigured and maimed in these conflicts and you endorsed an expansion of this. Iraq has seen 1.3 million innocents killed. Are we going to try to match that in Afghanistan? Make no mistake Obama voters you endorsed the killing of innocents. You could have chosen Ron Paul or a multitude of other third party candidates that would end the wars and bring the troops home.
If you voted for Obama you endorsed torture and kidnappging.
Obama has promised to continue rendition and torture. He will grab suspected terrorists, torture and detain them. There will be no trial, no evidence. Just a bunch of CIA, NSA and FBI people saying...maybe he is a terrorist, lets torture him. Obama has endorsed this and so did you. You Obama voter are responsible.
I find these two things reprehensible so could not vote for a democrat or republican. I want real change. I want the CIA and wars ended. Its time to step up to the plate and understand on a personal level what you voted for. You are complicit in the murder of innocent people. This war is a lie, the evidence is in front of your face yet to vote for an EXPANSION of it? Really? Grow up and face you personal responsibility for enabling the people in power to create and maintain the empire through war and oppression.
Tuesday, February 10, 2009
Road to Avalon - Again.
Road to Avalon (RTA)
“This is mainly in response to Tiwaz and his can-of-chicken analysis, but more generally to the tone of disaster I'm so tired of people espousing.”
Calling All Angels (CAA)
Do you want me to do cans of tuna? I can do tuna. As for the example is it not factually correct? Is it wrong? What’s your problem with the example? As for disaster, did you watch the video. I posted in the comments of serious stimulus. It is a democratic congressman talking about how our financial and political system almost collapsed because of an electronic run on the banks that occurred in September of 2008. He then goes on to talk about how we are no better off today months later. Um…might be time to start discussing disasters as we are in one.
RTA
“Because, you see, all you need to do to put this in perspective is look at a)how people are still beating down our door to get in this country and stay illegally if possible b) how it is still possible for us to have these debates, and educate ourselves to produce some of the brightest and most capable minds in the worlds
CAA
Most capable minds in the world? Then why does the world stand on the brink of worldwide depression or complete economic collapse? Maybe, just maybe everything you hear coming out of these “so called” bright people is total crap. Everybody bought it, now we are screwed. Also, if you believe the government can create jobs, why has there ever been unemployment…EVER? Obvious answer. IT CAN’T. A country called Russia tired it, a country called China tried it. Russia has since collapsed and is on its way to round two. China is dealing with 20 million suddenly unemployed people and is experiencing the worst civil unrest in its history. There is no proof that governments can create jobs in a meaningful way. NONE.
RTA
c) how our cred just went up on the world stage by booting the Texas Moron and installing an educated statesman like Obama who's proof of social progress in this nation even as Prop 9 and a Roe v Wade reversal lurk ..”
CAA
Our cred? You mean after Obama stuffed his Cabinet with a bunch of lobbyists against campaign promises, will continue and expand the war in Afghanistan, continues (and is stepping up) attacks in Pakistan against the protests of their government often killing women and children, will continue CIA rendition, torture, interrogation, kidnapping and domestic spying, will give Bush a Free pass. Not only that but also presented a pork barrel stuffed mega spending bill that tanked the stock market? Nominated 4 tax cheats and got one confirmed? Came out and used the same scare tactics Bush used on stimulus…pass or else? I have heard “more of the same” coming out of just about every news organization in the country. Honeymoon is over.
RTA
“So Tiwaz, although the people in power (or who don't have it but desperately want it like Ron Paul) have something to gain by talking trash and apocalypse, you need to be smarter than blindly repeating their mantras and ask what you stand to gain by making people afraid rather than inspiring them to spend the energies they've got on constructive pursuits.
CAA
If Ron Paul so desperately wanted power why didn’t he run as an independent in the election? He refused even though he was gaining immense popularity and was raising a lot of money. Power was not his goal, I believe he called it a “Campaign for Liberty”. Are you talking about the mantra’s of “no wars of aggression, less taxes, more freedom, less government waste, less government intervention in our lives, the freedom to chose etc”. I will gladly spout those until the day I die, I am an American. Maybe Obama should start.
What I see in government scares me. I see people voting for bills like the John Warner 2007 Defense Authorization Act or the Homegrown Terrorist act that gives our government Gestapo like authority and powers and shreds the constitution. Our founding fathers warned us against such abuses and now we have a president that voted for both of those monstrosities against freedom. That scares me and it should scare you too. Ron Paul talks openly and honestly about our problems and offers solutions like eliminate the income tax, end foreign wars of aggression etc. Obama offers no solutions but continuing Bush’s failed policies. He even kept his national security team around to help him do just that.
RTA
Do you think we need to be afraid in order to make the world a better place ? I really wish I knew why from the minute I met you you were trying to convince me to be afraid - that something is horribly wrong.”
CAA
The world has changed radically. Our banking system and economy stand on the brink of total collapse. We have lost 3.6 million jobs and there is no end in sight. Many states unemployment funds have run out or are going to run out soon. We have the very real possibility of hyperinflation (chicken can example). Our states are broke, out country is broke and we are up to our eyeballs in debt. We are 5% of the world population and use 25% of its oil. A resource we are utterly dependent upon and that is running out. There is no rosy picture to paint for you, and to believe there is one is naïve. This is the truth, this is reality. I hope that you get scared and join me in trying to get ready for a future that has never been more frightening. Maybe if enough people demand better leadership we’ll get it. Lets face facts.
RTA
“But - if 3rd party candidates are your only role models, I can't expect you to understand the crafting of a message that appeals to more than just the fringe. I don't know if you picture the world as a bunch of disenfranchised people who aren't doing anything, and need to be moved to panic to make them do something.
CAA
My role models are data and evidence. And your blog claimed I was full of conjecture, your post reeks of it. I will offer bills, sources and any other proof you desire to back up my claims that you SHOULD be scared and that we must act to ensure a future for our country. Gloom and doom is only that if it is not reality. I have tried to offer a lot of evidence that this is in fact reality, not the rosy picture of hope the politicians would have you believe. The evidence is out there, and if we have a truly informed public maybe we can force the change necessary to survive as a nation. However if the conversation continues as it has on RTA we are certainly doomed. I will offer you as many links and articles, evidence and data I can. All you need do is ask.
RTA
But that's the sense I get talking to the gloom and doom types I'm tempted to lump you in with. If you want to propose something we can *do*, you'll have my ear.
CAA
My Proposals.
Campaign Finance Reform - IMMEDIATELY
Publicly finance all elections and make them fair so that we don’t have another bought and paid for election…ahem…Obama. Make it illegal for any politician to accept money in any form. Raise all the salaries of elected officials and create draconian laws preventing abuses. Do you honestly think Obama will level the playing field now that he is in office? He already lied about taking public money choosing to opt out (after promising to take it) once his war chest trumped McCain’s.
Stimulus
If we are going to have a stimulus lets offer incentives for anyone to become an organic farmer. Tax breaks, incentives and grants to begin restoring soil and planting and producing crops organically. 500 billion for renewable energy research and implementation in 3 years. Aim to convert the top 500 cities to wind, solar or any other thing we can come up with before the price of oil hits 400 a barrel. Balance the budget, begin paying down debt. Begin a massive conversion to public transportation. 15 year massive project that might actually create or at least save some jobs.
Government
End the CIA, rendition, torture, domestic spying, the war in Afghanistan, Iraq, close the 1000 worldwide military bases and bring the troops home. Get rid of these horrible fascist bills like John Warner, Patriot Act etc. Cut military spending by 75%, pull out of the UN.
Crisis
Build a commission and declare the entire world in bankruptcy reorganization. I am taking this one from LaRouche. He is sort of a crackpot but sometimes genius. Not only do we need to keep the things necessary to life on the planet going such as farming and energy production but we need to begin transitioning to renewable energy even though it still sucks. The world is functionally insolvent. We need to recognize that.
In conclusion
I think that I would be hard pressed to find anyone who disagrees with much of the above. However Obama will do almost none of it. I don’t repeat Ron Paul’s mantra’s…he voices some of the things I think this country needs so I support him in those things.
Personal for just a sec….
I don’t like doing this because it destroys discussions and so far I have enjoyed reading and commenting on your blog. I enjoy a good argument, I enjoy learning and nothing helps me learn more than a good discussion with someone smarter than myself. I invite you to rebuff and refute any argument I present with passion, but also with logic, examples and data.
That being said I feel the RTA post was meant to be insulting and a distraction. Please refrain from those tactics. For example I would like to see you address my arguments on meta-economics rather than read this garbage.
Sincerely
Tiwaz – Calling All Angels.
“This is mainly in response to Tiwaz and his can-of-chicken analysis, but more generally to the tone of disaster I'm so tired of people espousing.”
Calling All Angels (CAA)
Do you want me to do cans of tuna? I can do tuna. As for the example is it not factually correct? Is it wrong? What’s your problem with the example? As for disaster, did you watch the video. I posted in the comments of serious stimulus. It is a democratic congressman talking about how our financial and political system almost collapsed because of an electronic run on the banks that occurred in September of 2008. He then goes on to talk about how we are no better off today months later. Um…might be time to start discussing disasters as we are in one.
RTA
“Because, you see, all you need to do to put this in perspective is look at a)how people are still beating down our door to get in this country and stay illegally if possible b) how it is still possible for us to have these debates, and educate ourselves to produce some of the brightest and most capable minds in the worlds
CAA
Most capable minds in the world? Then why does the world stand on the brink of worldwide depression or complete economic collapse? Maybe, just maybe everything you hear coming out of these “so called” bright people is total crap. Everybody bought it, now we are screwed. Also, if you believe the government can create jobs, why has there ever been unemployment…EVER? Obvious answer. IT CAN’T. A country called Russia tired it, a country called China tried it. Russia has since collapsed and is on its way to round two. China is dealing with 20 million suddenly unemployed people and is experiencing the worst civil unrest in its history. There is no proof that governments can create jobs in a meaningful way. NONE.
RTA
c) how our cred just went up on the world stage by booting the Texas Moron and installing an educated statesman like Obama who's proof of social progress in this nation even as Prop 9 and a Roe v Wade reversal lurk ..”
CAA
Our cred? You mean after Obama stuffed his Cabinet with a bunch of lobbyists against campaign promises, will continue and expand the war in Afghanistan, continues (and is stepping up) attacks in Pakistan against the protests of their government often killing women and children, will continue CIA rendition, torture, interrogation, kidnapping and domestic spying, will give Bush a Free pass. Not only that but also presented a pork barrel stuffed mega spending bill that tanked the stock market? Nominated 4 tax cheats and got one confirmed? Came out and used the same scare tactics Bush used on stimulus…pass or else? I have heard “more of the same” coming out of just about every news organization in the country. Honeymoon is over.
RTA
“So Tiwaz, although the people in power (or who don't have it but desperately want it like Ron Paul) have something to gain by talking trash and apocalypse, you need to be smarter than blindly repeating their mantras and ask what you stand to gain by making people afraid rather than inspiring them to spend the energies they've got on constructive pursuits.
CAA
If Ron Paul so desperately wanted power why didn’t he run as an independent in the election? He refused even though he was gaining immense popularity and was raising a lot of money. Power was not his goal, I believe he called it a “Campaign for Liberty”. Are you talking about the mantra’s of “no wars of aggression, less taxes, more freedom, less government waste, less government intervention in our lives, the freedom to chose etc”. I will gladly spout those until the day I die, I am an American. Maybe Obama should start.
What I see in government scares me. I see people voting for bills like the John Warner 2007 Defense Authorization Act or the Homegrown Terrorist act that gives our government Gestapo like authority and powers and shreds the constitution. Our founding fathers warned us against such abuses and now we have a president that voted for both of those monstrosities against freedom. That scares me and it should scare you too. Ron Paul talks openly and honestly about our problems and offers solutions like eliminate the income tax, end foreign wars of aggression etc. Obama offers no solutions but continuing Bush’s failed policies. He even kept his national security team around to help him do just that.
RTA
Do you think we need to be afraid in order to make the world a better place ? I really wish I knew why from the minute I met you you were trying to convince me to be afraid - that something is horribly wrong.”
CAA
The world has changed radically. Our banking system and economy stand on the brink of total collapse. We have lost 3.6 million jobs and there is no end in sight. Many states unemployment funds have run out or are going to run out soon. We have the very real possibility of hyperinflation (chicken can example). Our states are broke, out country is broke and we are up to our eyeballs in debt. We are 5% of the world population and use 25% of its oil. A resource we are utterly dependent upon and that is running out. There is no rosy picture to paint for you, and to believe there is one is naïve. This is the truth, this is reality. I hope that you get scared and join me in trying to get ready for a future that has never been more frightening. Maybe if enough people demand better leadership we’ll get it. Lets face facts.
RTA
“But - if 3rd party candidates are your only role models, I can't expect you to understand the crafting of a message that appeals to more than just the fringe. I don't know if you picture the world as a bunch of disenfranchised people who aren't doing anything, and need to be moved to panic to make them do something.
CAA
My role models are data and evidence. And your blog claimed I was full of conjecture, your post reeks of it. I will offer bills, sources and any other proof you desire to back up my claims that you SHOULD be scared and that we must act to ensure a future for our country. Gloom and doom is only that if it is not reality. I have tried to offer a lot of evidence that this is in fact reality, not the rosy picture of hope the politicians would have you believe. The evidence is out there, and if we have a truly informed public maybe we can force the change necessary to survive as a nation. However if the conversation continues as it has on RTA we are certainly doomed. I will offer you as many links and articles, evidence and data I can. All you need do is ask.
RTA
But that's the sense I get talking to the gloom and doom types I'm tempted to lump you in with. If you want to propose something we can *do*, you'll have my ear.
CAA
My Proposals.
Campaign Finance Reform - IMMEDIATELY
Publicly finance all elections and make them fair so that we don’t have another bought and paid for election…ahem…Obama. Make it illegal for any politician to accept money in any form. Raise all the salaries of elected officials and create draconian laws preventing abuses. Do you honestly think Obama will level the playing field now that he is in office? He already lied about taking public money choosing to opt out (after promising to take it) once his war chest trumped McCain’s.
Stimulus
If we are going to have a stimulus lets offer incentives for anyone to become an organic farmer. Tax breaks, incentives and grants to begin restoring soil and planting and producing crops organically. 500 billion for renewable energy research and implementation in 3 years. Aim to convert the top 500 cities to wind, solar or any other thing we can come up with before the price of oil hits 400 a barrel. Balance the budget, begin paying down debt. Begin a massive conversion to public transportation. 15 year massive project that might actually create or at least save some jobs.
Government
End the CIA, rendition, torture, domestic spying, the war in Afghanistan, Iraq, close the 1000 worldwide military bases and bring the troops home. Get rid of these horrible fascist bills like John Warner, Patriot Act etc. Cut military spending by 75%, pull out of the UN.
Crisis
Build a commission and declare the entire world in bankruptcy reorganization. I am taking this one from LaRouche. He is sort of a crackpot but sometimes genius. Not only do we need to keep the things necessary to life on the planet going such as farming and energy production but we need to begin transitioning to renewable energy even though it still sucks. The world is functionally insolvent. We need to recognize that.
In conclusion
I think that I would be hard pressed to find anyone who disagrees with much of the above. However Obama will do almost none of it. I don’t repeat Ron Paul’s mantra’s…he voices some of the things I think this country needs so I support him in those things.
Personal for just a sec….
I don’t like doing this because it destroys discussions and so far I have enjoyed reading and commenting on your blog. I enjoy a good argument, I enjoy learning and nothing helps me learn more than a good discussion with someone smarter than myself. I invite you to rebuff and refute any argument I present with passion, but also with logic, examples and data.
That being said I feel the RTA post was meant to be insulting and a distraction. Please refrain from those tactics. For example I would like to see you address my arguments on meta-economics rather than read this garbage.
Sincerely
Tiwaz – Calling All Angels.
Monday, February 9, 2009
Friday, February 6, 2009
Inflation, Deflation and the Stimulus.
With all the debate about the stimulus and inflation vs deflation lets take a look at all this.
SOME BACKGROUND
We have lost 1.5 million jobs in 3 months. Companies and Banks are failing at an unbelievable rate and GDP shrunk at an annualized rate of over 15.2% in December. January jobs will probably be worse and the first quarter GDP will be at least as bad if not worse. The stock market has lost close to half its value and pension and retirement funds have been decimated losing anywhere from 30-60% of their value. The downward spiral has begun and a stimulus package has been introduced to try and jump start an economy in freefall. There is some wrangling going on but I have a feeling something will be passed eventually…but what will that do for us? Let’s look at a couple of issues facing the stimulus, the budget and our own personal lives over the next couple of months.
DEFICITS AND INTEREST
As tax revenues implode states are having a tough time keeping up with their obligations, everything from Police and Fire to welfare and Medicaid. California has a record budget deficit of 42 billion dollars and 46 of 50 states will have budget shortfalls this year. The stimulus package aims to shore up the budgets of the states by borrowing money via deficit spending. It’s important to realize how the government borrows money and what deficit spending means. When the Federal Government (Treasury) needs money they ask the Federal Reserve (Fed) to issue debt via a bond auction. Groups of people and institutions can buy the bonds issued by the Federal Reserve often referred to as Treasury Bonds. The Fed then loans the money it raises to the Treasury and the Treasury in turn deposits that in a commercial bank (say JP Morgan Chase). For a quick and dirty example of how this works…say you buy a $1000 2 year Treasury note and receive at an interest rate of 1%. That means you give the Federal Reserve $1000 and they agree to pay you interest on that money of 1% for 24 months. Then at the end of 2 years the government has to repay you the full $1000 back plus interest. They “borrowed” the money for two years. That’s 1000 + 240 (interest paid out monthly).
The problem is twofold, as tax revenues plummet debt service payments are set to skyrocket. IE, you lose your job and have to take on more and more debt to sustain your lifestyle your minimum monthly payment is going up on your credit cards. Now add in interest and that can become quite of bit of money you owe in a very short amount of time. The US government obligations are growing at a very fast pace and instead of paying back the principle ($1000) we are instead piling on more debt. As more and more money is borrowed more and more money will need to be diverted to make payments on that debt. If this continues long enough the interest will surpass the ability of the borrower (US) to service the debt (make minimum monthly payments). This opens the possibility that the US could default on its debt…but wait! Luckily the US government has a printing press and can just create more money and debt out of thin air to continue to service the old debt. They can just say hey…we owe this much per month here is an extra 1 Trillion no questions asked. They just tack on the additional interest. That’s how more and more money gets in the system. Instead of paying back the debt they just borrow more to both cover the interest and buy stuff like bridges and roads and shore up state budgets via a stimulus package.
The problem. Some so called experts and government officials will say that deficit spending is OK, however If you never pay back the debt, the money created by the debt stays in circulation. The more debt we take on the more money is being put into and KEPT in circulation. If the real economy stays the same, the number of widgets sold is the same, BUT the amount of money buying widgets goes up what happens? The price of the widgets will go up and we call that inflation (rising prices due to increased money supply). Now, let’s say for example that we have a recession and the production of widgets falls along with other items like food? That could accelerate inflation and potentially turn it into hyperinflation (inflation exceeding 15% in my definition.) When you here people shocked about a “doubling of the money supply” by the Fed because of these bailouts etc and you wonder why people care here is an example.
Question: 8 people have 10 dollars (80 total). There are 8 cans of chicken. What is the price of the chicken?
Answer: The total price of chicken cannot exceed 80 dollars. That’s all the money in existence and averages out to 8 bucks for a can of chicken.
Now….
Question: Say we double the money supply and the number of cans of chicken stays stable at 8. What is the new price of chicken? 8 people, 20 dollars (160 total) – 8 cans of chicken.
Answer: The total price of chicken now cannot exceed 160 or $20 per can of chicken.
What if there is a recession?
Question: Say we double the money supply but the production of chicken cans Is only 4. What is the new price of chicken?
Answer: 8 people, 160 dollars, 4 cans of chicken. Price is a minimum of $40, and inflation rate of 400%. Not only that but someone is going hungry.
The next logical question is will the price of everything suddenly double after the Fed doubled the money supply? The answer is a little more complicated but no, it takes awhile for money to work its way into the system and some will be held back, but can we expect the price of things to begin climbing? Yes. Will the price of food keep going up? The answer is yes and it has been at a rapid clip (see link at end on rising worldwide food prices). Food production is falling worldwide as the credit crunch affects everything even farming. That is why this stimulus needs to spend the money as wisely as possible to prepare the US for some other very important milestones in human history. Peak Oil is here and we are not ready. The IEA has made the statement that we will need a 360 billion dollar a year investment in infrastructure to maintain a 6.4% DECLINE in production of oil until it’s gone. You need to let that sink in. Peak oil is here. We are going to have production declines FOREVER going forward.
PEAK OIL
What does “peak oil” mean? In the 1970’s the US experienced a 5% supply disruption due to an OPEC embargo. This caused the price of oil to skyrocket 400%. Knowing that the entire world is now in decline and we could see over 6% supply disruptions every year going forward this indicates much higher fossil fuel prices in the future. We could see $200 a barrel oil as soon as next year if not earlier. We have very little renewable infrastructure in place and the current technology’s return on energy invested comes nowhere near fossil fuels.
POLITICS
The current actions of the President with his silly stimulus that pays for STD prevention will certainly lead the US down a path of complete destruction. As food and fuel prices surge and the money supply continually doubled to bail out our collapsed financial system our dollar will be worthless and hyperinflation will be upon us, IN THE THINGS THAT MATTER (food and energy). That can of chicken costing $20 or $40 is not that far off, maybe six months to a year depending on how big the stimulus is and how much production of food and energy fall. The statement by Obama that “Deficits don’t’ matter” is insane. He has put the world on notice that holding US dollars will not be a good investment for “years to come”.
There are many arguments about Inflation vs. Deflation as asset prices implode. The debate rages but misses the point. In the stuff that matters the most to mankind the supply is dwindling. It takes 10 calories of fossil fuels to create 1 calorie of food. If we have hit peak oil then without some changes we certainly have hit "peak food". The increase in money supply will only accelerate this problem. The prices of these very limited commodities could skyrocket as supplies diminish. We currently have 60 million working poor in the US and if we tack on an additional 15% food tax or more that will certainly create a lot of hungry people. Desperate people do desperate things and the civil unrest breaking out across the world cannot be ignored and must be looked at as a symptom of things much worse to come. The United States of America is now a net importer of food. We cannot feed ourselves and we rely heavily on fossil fuel imports from countries that don’t like us to sustain our current production. This is a recipe for disaster.
As prices skyrocket look for hunger, resource wars and other blights on human history to soon be here and with a vengeance. Every other country on earth is in our predicament, the race to secure the last of the fossil fuel supplies is on. Unless our leadership gets really serious and really honest with us REALLY REALLY fast the meltdown could be fatal. The side effects of the credit crisis and the breakdown of society are much more concerning than the DOW.
Even if the prices of houses, cars, TV's and stocks continue to collapse governments will be forced to subsidize two basic things in the end. Energy and Food, and both have a very limited supply as documented by the IEA and others including Dick Cheney who gave a speech on the subject of peak oil in 1999. I could care less about asset prices dropping or deflation in stocks and bonds. Yes the price of a plasma is collapsing but so what? Yes my stock portfolio is gone. But my debt remains and the price to eat only goes up. Show me the price of food, water and energy. That is the only inflation debate that matters.
CONCLUSION
In a country up to its eyeballs in debt and losing jobs faster than one can say "jobs". Inflation in Food and Energy will create such social unrest that the country may tear itself apart. Recently HR 645 was introduced and is in committee. This tells me that the government knows there is no solution and is preparing for the worst and you should too.
SOME BACKGROUND
We have lost 1.5 million jobs in 3 months. Companies and Banks are failing at an unbelievable rate and GDP shrunk at an annualized rate of over 15.2% in December. January jobs will probably be worse and the first quarter GDP will be at least as bad if not worse. The stock market has lost close to half its value and pension and retirement funds have been decimated losing anywhere from 30-60% of their value. The downward spiral has begun and a stimulus package has been introduced to try and jump start an economy in freefall. There is some wrangling going on but I have a feeling something will be passed eventually…but what will that do for us? Let’s look at a couple of issues facing the stimulus, the budget and our own personal lives over the next couple of months.
DEFICITS AND INTEREST
As tax revenues implode states are having a tough time keeping up with their obligations, everything from Police and Fire to welfare and Medicaid. California has a record budget deficit of 42 billion dollars and 46 of 50 states will have budget shortfalls this year. The stimulus package aims to shore up the budgets of the states by borrowing money via deficit spending. It’s important to realize how the government borrows money and what deficit spending means. When the Federal Government (Treasury) needs money they ask the Federal Reserve (Fed) to issue debt via a bond auction. Groups of people and institutions can buy the bonds issued by the Federal Reserve often referred to as Treasury Bonds. The Fed then loans the money it raises to the Treasury and the Treasury in turn deposits that in a commercial bank (say JP Morgan Chase). For a quick and dirty example of how this works…say you buy a $1000 2 year Treasury note and receive at an interest rate of 1%. That means you give the Federal Reserve $1000 and they agree to pay you interest on that money of 1% for 24 months. Then at the end of 2 years the government has to repay you the full $1000 back plus interest. They “borrowed” the money for two years. That’s 1000 + 240 (interest paid out monthly).
The problem is twofold, as tax revenues plummet debt service payments are set to skyrocket. IE, you lose your job and have to take on more and more debt to sustain your lifestyle your minimum monthly payment is going up on your credit cards. Now add in interest and that can become quite of bit of money you owe in a very short amount of time. The US government obligations are growing at a very fast pace and instead of paying back the principle ($1000) we are instead piling on more debt. As more and more money is borrowed more and more money will need to be diverted to make payments on that debt. If this continues long enough the interest will surpass the ability of the borrower (US) to service the debt (make minimum monthly payments). This opens the possibility that the US could default on its debt…but wait! Luckily the US government has a printing press and can just create more money and debt out of thin air to continue to service the old debt. They can just say hey…we owe this much per month here is an extra 1 Trillion no questions asked. They just tack on the additional interest. That’s how more and more money gets in the system. Instead of paying back the debt they just borrow more to both cover the interest and buy stuff like bridges and roads and shore up state budgets via a stimulus package.
The problem. Some so called experts and government officials will say that deficit spending is OK, however If you never pay back the debt, the money created by the debt stays in circulation. The more debt we take on the more money is being put into and KEPT in circulation. If the real economy stays the same, the number of widgets sold is the same, BUT the amount of money buying widgets goes up what happens? The price of the widgets will go up and we call that inflation (rising prices due to increased money supply). Now, let’s say for example that we have a recession and the production of widgets falls along with other items like food? That could accelerate inflation and potentially turn it into hyperinflation (inflation exceeding 15% in my definition.) When you here people shocked about a “doubling of the money supply” by the Fed because of these bailouts etc and you wonder why people care here is an example.
Question: 8 people have 10 dollars (80 total). There are 8 cans of chicken. What is the price of the chicken?
Answer: The total price of chicken cannot exceed 80 dollars. That’s all the money in existence and averages out to 8 bucks for a can of chicken.
Now….
Question: Say we double the money supply and the number of cans of chicken stays stable at 8. What is the new price of chicken? 8 people, 20 dollars (160 total) – 8 cans of chicken.
Answer: The total price of chicken now cannot exceed 160 or $20 per can of chicken.
What if there is a recession?
Question: Say we double the money supply but the production of chicken cans Is only 4. What is the new price of chicken?
Answer: 8 people, 160 dollars, 4 cans of chicken. Price is a minimum of $40, and inflation rate of 400%. Not only that but someone is going hungry.
The next logical question is will the price of everything suddenly double after the Fed doubled the money supply? The answer is a little more complicated but no, it takes awhile for money to work its way into the system and some will be held back, but can we expect the price of things to begin climbing? Yes. Will the price of food keep going up? The answer is yes and it has been at a rapid clip (see link at end on rising worldwide food prices). Food production is falling worldwide as the credit crunch affects everything even farming. That is why this stimulus needs to spend the money as wisely as possible to prepare the US for some other very important milestones in human history. Peak Oil is here and we are not ready. The IEA has made the statement that we will need a 360 billion dollar a year investment in infrastructure to maintain a 6.4% DECLINE in production of oil until it’s gone. You need to let that sink in. Peak oil is here. We are going to have production declines FOREVER going forward.
PEAK OIL
What does “peak oil” mean? In the 1970’s the US experienced a 5% supply disruption due to an OPEC embargo. This caused the price of oil to skyrocket 400%. Knowing that the entire world is now in decline and we could see over 6% supply disruptions every year going forward this indicates much higher fossil fuel prices in the future. We could see $200 a barrel oil as soon as next year if not earlier. We have very little renewable infrastructure in place and the current technology’s return on energy invested comes nowhere near fossil fuels.
POLITICS
The current actions of the President with his silly stimulus that pays for STD prevention will certainly lead the US down a path of complete destruction. As food and fuel prices surge and the money supply continually doubled to bail out our collapsed financial system our dollar will be worthless and hyperinflation will be upon us, IN THE THINGS THAT MATTER (food and energy). That can of chicken costing $20 or $40 is not that far off, maybe six months to a year depending on how big the stimulus is and how much production of food and energy fall. The statement by Obama that “Deficits don’t’ matter” is insane. He has put the world on notice that holding US dollars will not be a good investment for “years to come”.
There are many arguments about Inflation vs. Deflation as asset prices implode. The debate rages but misses the point. In the stuff that matters the most to mankind the supply is dwindling. It takes 10 calories of fossil fuels to create 1 calorie of food. If we have hit peak oil then without some changes we certainly have hit "peak food". The increase in money supply will only accelerate this problem. The prices of these very limited commodities could skyrocket as supplies diminish. We currently have 60 million working poor in the US and if we tack on an additional 15% food tax or more that will certainly create a lot of hungry people. Desperate people do desperate things and the civil unrest breaking out across the world cannot be ignored and must be looked at as a symptom of things much worse to come. The United States of America is now a net importer of food. We cannot feed ourselves and we rely heavily on fossil fuel imports from countries that don’t like us to sustain our current production. This is a recipe for disaster.
As prices skyrocket look for hunger, resource wars and other blights on human history to soon be here and with a vengeance. Every other country on earth is in our predicament, the race to secure the last of the fossil fuel supplies is on. Unless our leadership gets really serious and really honest with us REALLY REALLY fast the meltdown could be fatal. The side effects of the credit crisis and the breakdown of society are much more concerning than the DOW.
Even if the prices of houses, cars, TV's and stocks continue to collapse governments will be forced to subsidize two basic things in the end. Energy and Food, and both have a very limited supply as documented by the IEA and others including Dick Cheney who gave a speech on the subject of peak oil in 1999. I could care less about asset prices dropping or deflation in stocks and bonds. Yes the price of a plasma is collapsing but so what? Yes my stock portfolio is gone. But my debt remains and the price to eat only goes up. Show me the price of food, water and energy. That is the only inflation debate that matters.
CONCLUSION
In a country up to its eyeballs in debt and losing jobs faster than one can say "jobs". Inflation in Food and Energy will create such social unrest that the country may tear itself apart. Recently HR 645 was introduced and is in committee. This tells me that the government knows there is no solution and is preparing for the worst and you should too.
Why China gets peak oil
China continues to ramp up production, storage and anything raw materials and oil despite the downturn in prices. They being the long term thinkers understand that acting for only short term profits will destroy a country. When any young Chinese people ask why do we think so long term they must immediately point out America and say "Look, do you want to be a stupid fat American?"
I have come to have new respect for the Chinese. Despite their totalitarian government. They are planners and thinkers. We need to be investing in oil no matter the price because its running out and we need the stuff to get renewable s online, unfortunately we are bitching about Obama's "stimulus".
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSPEK20974820090206?rpc=401&
I have come to have new respect for the Chinese. Despite their totalitarian government. They are planners and thinkers. We need to be investing in oil no matter the price because its running out and we need the stuff to get renewable s online, unfortunately we are bitching about Obama's "stimulus".
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSPEK20974820090206?rpc=401&
Wednesday, February 4, 2009
Things coming into focus....
Mish has some interesting points in his blog today including
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/02/triage-for-troubled-assets.html
His comments on the US guarantees....
My Comment: The centerpiece is insanity. The Government has already guaranteed $400 billion in bad debts of Citigroup and Bank of America. Now Geithner wants more. Note that the market cap of Citigroup (C) is roughly $19 billion and Bank of America (BAC) is roughly $27 billion. The treasury is guaranteeing $400 billion of debt on companies that would be worthless without those guarantees. Does this make sense?
Now watch this video - Who Owns America
http://youtube.com/watch?v=LWgAzgP5fko
Did it click?
From the video we know that the wealth of the country has been concentrated in the banks and the main owners of just about every major stock are in fact banks. The very same banks that have failed, that needed over 5 trillion in loans and guarantees to survive. I understand that they need to keep credit going, but more importantly what would happen if one more major banks failed?
First they would begin selling off their assets which include a lot of stock positions in companies like GE, GM etc. Lets say for example that GE was the first target and they had their stock pushed down 2 bucks. If 20 banks owned a combined 100 million shares that's a 1 billion dollar loss, instantly. The forced liquidation of say 1000 stocks in one major banks portfolio at 2 bucks a stock...now we are starting to look at some real money. If just one major one goes that could trigger the implosion of all of them and the complete collapse of our financial system. ATM's would stop working etc. Credit is an issue, but its the distraction issue. The real issue is the stock market because it ties directly to the pension market. This is the real implosion that they are desperately trying to avoid. Eventually the FED will lend to everybody to pay for stuff like farming etc. But the day of reckoning for the banks is coming soon.
I have a feeling the implications of DOW 6K are horrible. What does DOW 6000 mean? Pension and retirement funds have lost 40-50% of their value in 8 months. Tack on an additional 20% in losses and you will bankrupt most of them. That means no retirement for anybody. The commercial real estate bubble is coming and its going to cause a lot of banks to fail. The fed can guarantee as much worthless debt as they want the question is what happens when banks are forced to exit the stock market?
Unfortunately, I have to look back and say that Bush and TARP was right. They had to do it or we would be living Mad Max style these days. The system would have gone into a death spiral and the banks would have been forced to sell off their stock positions to raise what little capital they could and destroyed every bit of wealth in America. We are up to our eyeballs in debt now and the only asset left is the stock market. If it begins a march down the system could be finished and the nightmares real.
Gold
I think i am becoming more bullish everyday. People don't want to be in the stock market, they don't trust it anymore. Treasuries are not going to be trusted...what little money is left...where is it going to have to go.
GOLD, that's. Only perceived safe place.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/02/triage-for-troubled-assets.html
His comments on the US guarantees....
My Comment: The centerpiece is insanity. The Government has already guaranteed $400 billion in bad debts of Citigroup and Bank of America. Now Geithner wants more. Note that the market cap of Citigroup (C) is roughly $19 billion and Bank of America (BAC) is roughly $27 billion. The treasury is guaranteeing $400 billion of debt on companies that would be worthless without those guarantees. Does this make sense?
Now watch this video - Who Owns America
http://youtube.com/watch?v=LWgAzgP5fko
Did it click?
From the video we know that the wealth of the country has been concentrated in the banks and the main owners of just about every major stock are in fact banks. The very same banks that have failed, that needed over 5 trillion in loans and guarantees to survive. I understand that they need to keep credit going, but more importantly what would happen if one more major banks failed?
First they would begin selling off their assets which include a lot of stock positions in companies like GE, GM etc. Lets say for example that GE was the first target and they had their stock pushed down 2 bucks. If 20 banks owned a combined 100 million shares that's a 1 billion dollar loss, instantly. The forced liquidation of say 1000 stocks in one major banks portfolio at 2 bucks a stock...now we are starting to look at some real money. If just one major one goes that could trigger the implosion of all of them and the complete collapse of our financial system. ATM's would stop working etc. Credit is an issue, but its the distraction issue. The real issue is the stock market because it ties directly to the pension market. This is the real implosion that they are desperately trying to avoid. Eventually the FED will lend to everybody to pay for stuff like farming etc. But the day of reckoning for the banks is coming soon.
I have a feeling the implications of DOW 6K are horrible. What does DOW 6000 mean? Pension and retirement funds have lost 40-50% of their value in 8 months. Tack on an additional 20% in losses and you will bankrupt most of them. That means no retirement for anybody. The commercial real estate bubble is coming and its going to cause a lot of banks to fail. The fed can guarantee as much worthless debt as they want the question is what happens when banks are forced to exit the stock market?
Unfortunately, I have to look back and say that Bush and TARP was right. They had to do it or we would be living Mad Max style these days. The system would have gone into a death spiral and the banks would have been forced to sell off their stock positions to raise what little capital they could and destroyed every bit of wealth in America. We are up to our eyeballs in debt now and the only asset left is the stock market. If it begins a march down the system could be finished and the nightmares real.
Gold
I think i am becoming more bullish everyday. People don't want to be in the stock market, they don't trust it anymore. Treasuries are not going to be trusted...what little money is left...where is it going to have to go.
GOLD, that's. Only perceived safe place.
Tuesday, February 3, 2009
Obama is Failure (and Corrupt) cont...
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0109/18128.html
Daschle OUT – tax dodger 120K
Richardson OUT – campaign criminal up to $1 million
Meckler OUT – tax dodger (unknown)
Geitner IN – tax dodger 34K
Lobbyists
Eric Holder, attorney general nominee, was registered to lobby until 2004 on behalf of clients including Global Crossing, a bankrupt telecommunications firm.
Tom Vilsack, secretary of agriculture nominee, was registered to lobby as recently as last year on behalf of the National Education Association.
William Lynn, deputy defense secretary nominee, was registered to lobby as recently as last year for defense contractor Raytheon, where he was a top executive.
William Corr, deputy health and human services secretary nominee, was registered to lobby until last year for the Campaign for Tobacco-Free Kids, a non-profit that pushes to limit tobacco use.
David Hayes, deputy interior secretary nominee, was registered to lobby until 2006 for clients, including the regional utility San Diego Gas & Electric.
Mark Patterson, chief of staff to Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, was registered to lobby as recently as last year for financial giant Goldman Sachs.
Ron Klain, chief of staff to Vice President Joe Biden, was registered to lobby until 2005 for clients, including the Coalition for Asbestos Resolution, U.S. Airways, Airborne Express and drug-maker ImClone.
Mona Sutphen, deputy White House chief of staff, was registered to lobby for clients, including Angliss International in 2003.
Melody Barnes, domestic policy council director, lobbied in 2003 and 2004 for liberal advocacy groups, including the American Civil Liberties Union, the Leadership Conference on Civil Rights, the American Constitution Society and the Center for Reproductive Rights.
Cecilia Munoz, White House director of intergovernmental affairs, was a lobbyist as recently as last year for the National Council of La Raza, a Hispanic advocacy group.
Patrick Gaspard, White House political affairs director, was a lobbyist for the Service Employees International Union.
Michael Strautmanis, chief of staff to the president’s assistant for intergovernmental relations, lobbied for the American Association of Justice from 2001 until 2005.
Daschle OUT – tax dodger 120K
Richardson OUT – campaign criminal up to $1 million
Meckler OUT – tax dodger (unknown)
Geitner IN – tax dodger 34K
Lobbyists
Eric Holder, attorney general nominee, was registered to lobby until 2004 on behalf of clients including Global Crossing, a bankrupt telecommunications firm.
Tom Vilsack, secretary of agriculture nominee, was registered to lobby as recently as last year on behalf of the National Education Association.
William Lynn, deputy defense secretary nominee, was registered to lobby as recently as last year for defense contractor Raytheon, where he was a top executive.
William Corr, deputy health and human services secretary nominee, was registered to lobby until last year for the Campaign for Tobacco-Free Kids, a non-profit that pushes to limit tobacco use.
David Hayes, deputy interior secretary nominee, was registered to lobby until 2006 for clients, including the regional utility San Diego Gas & Electric.
Mark Patterson, chief of staff to Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, was registered to lobby as recently as last year for financial giant Goldman Sachs.
Ron Klain, chief of staff to Vice President Joe Biden, was registered to lobby until 2005 for clients, including the Coalition for Asbestos Resolution, U.S. Airways, Airborne Express and drug-maker ImClone.
Mona Sutphen, deputy White House chief of staff, was registered to lobby for clients, including Angliss International in 2003.
Melody Barnes, domestic policy council director, lobbied in 2003 and 2004 for liberal advocacy groups, including the American Civil Liberties Union, the Leadership Conference on Civil Rights, the American Constitution Society and the Center for Reproductive Rights.
Cecilia Munoz, White House director of intergovernmental affairs, was a lobbyist as recently as last year for the National Council of La Raza, a Hispanic advocacy group.
Patrick Gaspard, White House political affairs director, was a lobbyist for the Service Employees International Union.
Michael Strautmanis, chief of staff to the president’s assistant for intergovernmental relations, lobbied for the American Association of Justice from 2001 until 2005.
Sunday, February 1, 2009
Why we are SCREWED
The Obama stimulus plan is bad, very bad. The problem with our country is that we have forgotten what a victory is for America and only know what a political victory is anymore. The dems want to be the repubs, the repubs want to beat the dems etc. We have lost our way.
Proof you want? Proof you get…
www.roadtoavalon.blogspot.com
Government Is not to be believed. It is corrupt. Only the most childish among us would argue differently. We need real leadership going forward and Obama has offered anything but. We need to invest in renewable energy because oil is running out.
Peak oil. I don’t think that many people can understand this because it’s not super obvious in their own lives. The amount of oil being produced is falling. It is falling at an alarming rate and most experts agree that the decline began in July of 2008. So much of our daily lives depend on crude oil and its derivatives. Plastics, food, fertilizer, rubber etc. Solar and wind are our only substitutes and they basically suck. I hope the Road to Avalon peeps wake up in a hurry. Peak Oil is the single greatest threat we will ever see in our lifetimes, yet they seem content to relish the very latest political victory of the day that dooms our country to death.
WAKE UP.
Proof you want? Proof you get…
www.roadtoavalon.blogspot.com
Government Is not to be believed. It is corrupt. Only the most childish among us would argue differently. We need real leadership going forward and Obama has offered anything but. We need to invest in renewable energy because oil is running out.
Peak oil. I don’t think that many people can understand this because it’s not super obvious in their own lives. The amount of oil being produced is falling. It is falling at an alarming rate and most experts agree that the decline began in July of 2008. So much of our daily lives depend on crude oil and its derivatives. Plastics, food, fertilizer, rubber etc. Solar and wind are our only substitutes and they basically suck. I hope the Road to Avalon peeps wake up in a hurry. Peak Oil is the single greatest threat we will ever see in our lifetimes, yet they seem content to relish the very latest political victory of the day that dooms our country to death.
WAKE UP.
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